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Indian equity benchmark Nifty50 saw violent selloff ever since the beginning of September.
On the week ending October 5, the index violated a three-year-old upward rising channel.
Though it saw a smart bounce on Friday, where it seems to have formed a near-term bottom, here is a look at how the domestic equity market was placed vis-à-vis it global peers.
This can give a fair ideas about the validity of the technical pullback and also in which sectors investors can feel safer from here on, at least on a relative basis.
A comparison of Nifty with the Dow Jones Global Index shows the Indian benchmark’s bounce in the previous weeks did not have any backing from its Relative Strength when compared against the Dow.
There was persistent negative divergence with RS, which did not confirm any of the Nifty bounce.
Not surprisingly, the index gave up those gains and what we saw was a sharp correction.
Now, that Nifty stands extremely oversold on the short-term charts and trades near its short-term support levels on weekly charts, investors should find safety in a couple of sectors.
There are brighter chances that these sectors will stand out when the real technical pullback happens.
These are also the sectors that are likely to outperform the broader market on a relative basis should the market remain volatility and continue to show weakness.
The above chart along with the first one shows the relative strength (relative performance) of energy, metal, pharma, IT and the bank indices against Nifty.
These have either not formed fresh lows and shown bullish divergence, or are distinctly inching higher.
Now, if a technical pullback occurs or the market continues to see volatility with some weakness, these may be the sectors that investors should choose to stay with.
These may help them avoid losses and, at least relatively, outperform the broader market as these sectors may show some resilience going forward.
The complete picture of Nifty from a global perspective and the sectors on RRG (Relative Rotation Graph) can be seen
HERE(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research Advisory Services, Vadodara.
He can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots.
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