INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
We had mentioned in our previous weekly note that the markets would remain more volatile due to expiry of the January series and interim
The expiry day did not bring in any volatility at all, but the last session of the week remained extremely volatile, in line with
The Nifty saw volatile swings before settling the week, with net weekly gains of 113 points (+1.05 per cent).
We had also expected the week
to have a wider trading range than usual
While looking at finer details, it is observed that in the week before, the range of the Nifty was 231 points
But in the week that went by, the benchmark had a wider 400-point range
The index marked a similar high, but a lower bottom this week while taking support at the falling trend line drawn from the high point of
On the positive side, the headline index has managed to remain above its 50-Week MA at 10,766.
It is usual for the markets in general to
show euphoric moves while reacting to such an important event like Union Budget
Though the present one was an Interim Budget, markets will start reacting to it once the proposals are fully digested
The Budget was a populist one, but speaking in broad terms, it was also seen as a balanced one with politics not brazenly taking precedence
over economics.
We expect a stable start to the coming week and expect the markets to make attempts to move past the all-important 10,950
level, which has been acting as a stiff resistance over the past couple of weeks
The levels of 10,950 and 11,190 will provide resistance to the upside while supports will come in at 10,800 and 11,650.
The weekly RSI is
It remains neutral and does not show any divergence against the price
The weekly MACD is bullish and it trades above its signal line
No significant formations were observed on Candles.
The markets are finding resistance at the 10,950 mark on both daily and weekly timeframe
This has translated into a sideways consolidation on the weekly charts and for a reasonable upmove to occur, moving past the 10,950 level
will continue to remain critically important
We expect the markets to keep making efforts to move past this level, but in the process, keeping its head above the 50-Week MA mark will
A cautiously positive approach is advised for the coming week.
In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs, we compared various sectors against
CNX500, which represents over 95 per cent the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.
The study of Relative Rotation Graphs throws
up some interesting insights
We may see some continued slowdown in the Bank Nifty, Financial Services and Consumption indices, but these may continue to outperform the
broader markets, along with the FMCG pack.
Apart from this, we see the energy pack very sharply improving its relative momentum, almost in a
This group will also remain one of the better performing groups
Media, Auto and NIFTY Next 50 indices are seen losing their momentum and slowing down mid-way
The CNX IT index is seen gaining in ratio, but has lost relative momentum and this has seen itself advancing to a weakening quadrant
The Pharma index, however, has shown a steady improvement on the momentum front despite being stuck in the lagging quadrant.
The Metal index
has lost further ground and shows no signs of any improvement
Apart from this, a few stock-specific performances may be seen from the infrastructure pack.
Important Note: RRGTM charts show you the
relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks
In the above Chart, they show relative performance as against Nifty 500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or
