INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
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Vietnam's economic boom has happened with very little loosening of state
control
In late February, North Korea's Kim Jong-un will sit down for a second time with US President Donald Trump
The world's eyes will be focused on their nuclear negotiations, but Mr Kim will also be taking a very close look at the host country,
Vietnam, as Le Quynh of TheIndianSubcontinent Vietnamese explains
Mr Kim may well like what he sees in Vietnam.Like North Korea, it's a one-party Communist state
But since 1986, Vietnam has opened up its economy and its growth has been one of the fastest in Asia - the World Bank says its GDP could
And the Vietnamese Communist party has done this while retaining absolute power
It allows no opposition groups, maintains "absolute and direct leadership" over the army and the police and has conducted, says human rights
group Amnesty International, a "relentless crackdown on dissent".Vietnam ranks just above North Korea at the bottom of the 2018 World Press
Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders.But hosting such a major summit is certainly a sign that Vietnam has come a long way since the
end of the Vietnam War in 1975
A booming economy and prominent global role with no let-up on social controls may well appeal to Mr Kim.Judging from comments on Vietnamese
social media, most people are proud of their country being chosen to host the summit
Among them is Le Dang Doanh, a former adviser to the prime minister who has conducted extensive research on how Vietnam's transition could
He has twice met visiting North Korean delegates.There may be stark differences, the veteran economist told the TheIndianSubcontinent, "but
Vietnam's experience in private sector development, foreign investment attraction and deeper international integration may be helpful to
North Korea".Start with the farmVietnam's success story may has been long touted as an example for isolated North Korea, but there is little
evidence that Kim Jong-un's late father, Kim Jong-il, ever took the idea seriously
He never, for example, visited Vietnam
But Kim Jong-un has shown signs of being more open to change
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Economic growth has been a top priority
Since he took over in 2011,
there have been limited reforms in the agricultural sector, for example, allowing farmers to keep some of what they harvest.And last April,
Mr Kim claimed that as North Korea had successfully achieved nuclear capability, it could now focus on improving living standards
Vietnamese experts like Le Dang Doanh say there are some parallels between Vietnam in its early transition and North Korea today
Like North Korea, Vietnam knows the impact of trade embargos
Although Vietnam overthrew the Khmer Rouge regime in 1978, its subsequent occupation in Cambodia for the next 11 years gave the US grounds
to pressure the IMF and the World Bank to deny Vietnam aid.And like North Korea under Mr Kim, isolated Vietnam started its change with
grassroots reforms in collectivised agriculture."Before reform, Vietnam used to import one million tons of rice a year, but we are now an
important rice and agricultural exporter," Mr Doanh said
Vietnam went on to set up a foreign investment law, normalise its relationship with the world and privatise many of its state-owned
American President Bill Clinton lifted the trade embargo against Vietnam in 1994, and one year later, Vietnam joined the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (Asean)
It became a WTO member in 2007.North Korea could learn from this pragmatic gradualism, says Vu Minh Khuong, a Vietnamese academic at
National University of Singapore and an economic adviser to Vietnam's current prime minister.He told the TheIndianSubcontinent that North
Korea could follow by focusing at first on reforming its infrastructure and institutions, and perhaps by setting out a bold vision
"Vietnam has set out the aspiration to become a developed nation by 2045," said Mr Khuong."This vision is expected to become a powerful
force to advance the country forwards at rapid pace in the years to come."Keeping everyone on boardOf course, there are limits to what North
Korea can achieve in the short term
For a start, unless Washington and Pyongyang agree on what denuclearisation means and start work on it, there will be no lifting of
sanctions so it will be difficult for foreign investors to even consider North Korea
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Ho Chi Minh remains a revered figure across Vietnam
And Mr Kim would
also need to convince North Korea's elite that opening up is a triumph of his long-term policies, not a capitulation to market forces
In this regard, Vietnam will be instructive
Opening the economy has gone alongside a reassertion of the Communist Party's primacy and its heroic past
In 1991, as the Soviet Union was crumbling and Vietnam had to adjust to a new reality, Ho Chi Minh's Thought became one of the country's
guiding ideologies, along with Marxism-Leninism
And while discussions of a multi-party system are strictly forbidden, Vietnamese people have enjoyed greater freedom in their economic,
religious and social lives
Foreign travel, especially to neighbouring countries, has become common
There is a contradictory co-existence between an official media censorship and an unofficial lively discourse on Facebook
Image copyrightAFPImage caption
Vietnamese people may have more economic freedom but access to media is heavily
controlled
It is unclear if or when this delicate combination of tight political control and social relaxation can be
Still, if Kim Jong-un wants to follow a model of economic reform with limited political liberalisation, Vietnam, due to its size, may be a
more relevant example than, say, China."Vietnam has learned how to pursue a multi-directional foreign policy, to avoid being dependent on
one economy, and to build modern systems in financing and banking," said Le Dang Doanh
He added that if North Korea is serious about change, there were also less positive lessons to learn
"What Vietnam has not done so well in managing the natural resources and fighting corruption may also be useful for North Korea," he said
He also pointed out that in his meetings with North Korean officials, they've been keen to ask whether there had been internal conflicts
among Vietnamese leaders about their reforms, and how Vietnam managed this, which may give a clue to one of the biggest challenges to North
