INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Investors will this week finally get a comprehensive read of how China’s economy is faring this year as worries mount over the outlook for
the rest of the world.
Retail sales, investment, credit and industrial production data for January and February are all scheduled for
release just as the National People’s Congress is set to wrap up with a speech on Friday from Premier Li Keqiang.
“China’s credit and
activity data will help in assessing the extent of any stabilization in growth,” said Chang Shu, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg
“China’s credit data are important to help determine whether the economy is stabilizing.”
China Aggregate Social FinancingThe snapshot
of the world’s number two economy comes the week after the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its forecasts for
global growth, Citigroup Inc.’s global surprise index fell to its weakest since 2013 and the European Central Bank injected fresh monetary
stimulus.
Here’s our weekly rundown of other key economic events.U.S
and CanadaThe main event is Sunday evening’s appearance on CBS’s “60 Minutes” program by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as
investors wonder how permanent the the pause in interest rate hikes will prove
Tuesday is another big day for trade news with Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s testimony to the Senate Finance Committee
The most important indicators of the week are retail sales for January, which are expected to rebound from December declines, and the
consumer price index, whose growth is seen holding steady at 1.6 percent
Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins speaks on Thursday.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say“Retail sales likely rebounded
from their eye-popping plunge, which should demonstrate that consumers remain the dominant force behind economic growth
Meanwhile, the February CPI data will likely start showing nascent signs of an acceleration in wage-driven inflation.”
AsiaChinese retail
sales data arrive on Thursday with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg pointing to a 8.1 percent increase from the
previous year, down from 9 percent in the prior report
Industrial production, released the same day, is also seen slowing to 5.5 percent from 6.2 percent
Elsewhere in the region, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak on Friday, after he and his board meet to decide on monetary
No change in stimulus settings is anticipated, though there’s likely to be a discussion of whether or not to downgrade assessments of
industrial production, exports and overseas economies.
Europe, the Middle East and AfricaDays after the ECB acted to support demand,
industrial production data for January from Germany and the euro region will provide a glimpse of the health of the economy in the first
quarter, and may perhaps shed further light on the extent of weakness induced by international trade tensions
Scheduled for release on Wednesday, industrial production in the region will grow 0.5 percent after falling 0.9 percent, according to a
Bloomberg survey of economists
In the U.K., attention will focus on the government’s Tuesday vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, just a day before
Chancellor Philip Hammond is scheduled to deliver the spring budget statement.
In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in full-on
campaign mode as he looks to energize supporters ahead of municipal elections on March 31
Output data to be released on Monday may dampen the mood a bit, as it’ll almost certainly confirm the view of Bloomberg Economics that
Turkey has entered a technical recession.
AmericasBrazil’s new central bank chief, Roberto Campos Neto, will formally assume his post in a
ceremony on Wednesday, the day after February’s inflation figures are released
Argentina’s monthly inflation numbers come out on Thursday
In Ecuador, the IMF executive board is expected to approve a multi-billion dollar loan on Monday or Tuesday, while in Mexico the industrial
production statistics published on Wednesday will offer another indicator of how much activity has cooled since President Andres Manuel
Lopez Obrador took power.
