INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Image copyrightKCNAImage caption
Is Kim Jong-un getting ready for a return to rockets
Hey, North Korea -
what's up What are you doing As the correspondent for the Koreas, I find myself asking those questions a lot, no more so than now after the
much-anticipated Hanoi summit ended without reaching a deal on denuclearisation.Most of the world's media have no free access to North
Korea, and Kim Jong-un's Ryongsong Residence isn't really taking calls from journalists
The best any analyst or correspondent can do is read the signals coming from Pyongyang.And in the past week we've had a flurry of them
This has led many to believe that Kim Jong-un is reaching for the stars and is getting ready to launch a satellite
Is he And if he is, surely that would send a very different message to the charm offensive of the last year which led to several historic
It started with reports from the South Korean intelligence service which suggested work was taking place at Sohae, one of North Korea's main
Image copyrightReutersImage caption
Sohae last saw a rocket launch in February 2016
The site has never
been used to launch the type of missiles that ignited Donald Trump's Twitter feed and earned Kim Jong-un the nickname of "Rocketman"
But Sohae has been used for five satellite launches - two of which were successful
It has also been used to test some of the engines used in some of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).Pyongyang
started dismantling the site last year
It was taken as a gesture of goodwill, a sign Kim Jong-un was willing to engage in talks with the US and South Korea
But this work was halted in August when negotiations stalled
Now came testimony from intelligence sources in the South that the North appeared to be "putting back a roof and a door" on the facility
Later that week, satellite images analysed by both the Centre for Strategic and International Studies' (CSIS) Beyond Parallel programme and
38 North suggested that this was more than a bit of DIY
The two groups noted rapid progress had been made rebuilding parts of the site.Launch pad Gates on rocket gantry closed - hides activity on
the gantry, which supports a rocket before launchRail-mounted transfer building - shelter which moves along rails to transfer material from
the train to the launch padEngine test standEngine support structure - used to hold rocket engines while being testedRoof repaired - covers
area used for fuelling rocketsLater images allowed analysts to conclude that the satellite launching station was once again fully
operational.There was more to come
Arms Control specialist Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies had his team look over satellite images of the
North's main ICBM site near Pyongyang known as Sanumdong
Melissa Hanham from One Earth Future, who worked with him, said "there's a huge warehouse and it's hard to really monitor all the activity
But we could see lots of trucks and heavy vehicles in the parking lot going in and out - those trucks are big enough to hold a missile or a
rocket."Also key was the presence of a train
Usually the rockets or missiles are transported by train from Sanumdong to Sohae."We definitely saw a train at Sanumdong in late February
People are now watching the train station at Sohae," she said.The US special envoy for North Korea, Stephen Biegun, has since tried to halt
suggestions that North Korea is preparing to launch a satellite, criticising the "snap judgments of so many experts to drive to an immediate
conclusion about anything that's happening in North Korea"."It continues to boggle my mind how quickly so many are pressing to reach
conclusions on all this… It's not just the press, it's the think tank and the analytical community as well," he said on Monday.The US made
it clear that North Korea launching a rocket, even if it's just to advance its space programme and not its ICBM arsenal, would disappoint
So would Kim Jong-un really risk the wrath of an unpredictable president and put the current détente between the US and North Korea in
jeopardy Understanding the Hanoi summitImage copyrightEPAGrace Lui from the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies said it
"certainly seems like they might launch a satellite"."I think it depends on how Trump and the administration react to the activity thus
"If it becomes clear that Trump would scrap the US-DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] relationship altogether because of a space
launch, then Kim might choose not to
"But it's important to keep in mind that as a sovereign state, North Korea does have the legal rights to launch a rocket into space, and
that an adverse reaction from the US would be the result of a deliberate choice to interpret a rocket launch as an escalatory action."The US
and North Korea have been here before
The Obama administration spent two years negotiating in various backchannels with the North Koreans to come up with a deal to freeze North
Korea's nuclear weapons programme, put a moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in exchange for a package of food aid
The Leap Day Deal was announced on 29 February 2012.Just two weeks later the North Koreans announced they were going to launch a satellite
The US made it clear that would be a violation of the agreement, but Kim Jong-un - only a few months into his leadership - went ahead
anyway, scuppering the deal.US National Security Adviser John Bolton has already said North Korea could face further sanctions if it fails
Launching a satellite risks testing Donald Trump's patience and Mr Kim would also risk international condemnation.It's worth remembering,
however, that North Korea is well aware the world is watching
Pyongyang knows there are satellites travelling above it, beaming images of its secretive operations to analysts in the US
More on life in North KoreaSo the activity at Sohae and Sanumdong could be a deliberate tactic
Kim Jong-un could be bluffing to make a point."The actions seem designed to push the Trump administration toward a step-by-step approach to
negotiations, a plan US officials have explicitly rejected," said Adam Mount from the Federation of American Scientists."Pyongyang is
showing US officials that they will have only so many chances to lock in the current situation."Image:President Donald Trump: "Sometimes you
have to walkWhen the two leaders met in Hanoi, Mr Trump appears to have demanded an "all or nothing" approach to a denuclearisation deal
when Mr Kim has always said he wanted to take this "step by step"
These differences are essentially what led to both sides leaving the negotiating table last month early and with no deal.Mr Kim may be
trying to remind Mr Trump that this approach means North Korea is not yet beholden to any deal."Overhead imagery can tell us that Pyongyang
It can tell us part of the signal they're sending to Washington," says Mr Mount
"It tells us that negotiations are entering a new and extremely precarious phase
But it can't tell us the full story or their intentions for the next weeks."In his new year speech, always watched closely for those
political signals, Mr Kim made what sounded like a threat
He warned that he would seek a "new path" if the US misjudged his patience
The failure to reach a deal in Hanoi has left both leaders pondering their future
Mr Kim may be showing all the signs of getting ready for a launch, but he may not go ahead with it
If he does, the future of the Trump-Kim relationship may depend on whether cool heads prevail.
