INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: Market trod water during the week gone by as election politics, quarterly earnings and macroeconomic indicators kept investors
Even though benchmarks Sensex and Nifty logged gains in three out of five sessions, they failed to end in the positive for the week
Sensex broke the winning streak of last seven weeks, coming off by 95 points or 0.24 per cent, while Nifty retreated 23 points, or 0.20 per
Earnings will be a key theme going into the new week, truncated by two trading holiday, while macroeconomic data, political pulse and
global sentiments are expected to play their part
The market will be closed on Wednesday on account of Mahavir Jayanti and on Friday for Good Friday
Let’s take a look at key factors that can sway the market through the coming week
India Inc’s Q4 earningsWipro, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank are among the companies that will announce their fourth quarter earnings
on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively
Last week, Infosys and TCS delivered better-than-expected numbers and a continuation of this trend should help boost the morale of investors
Macroeconomic numbersOfficial data on retail inflation for March and IIP growth for February were disclosed post market hours on Friday
The wholesale inflation prints and trade balance numbers will be released on Monday
The annual retail inflation rose to 2.9 per cent against 2.6 per cent in the previous month
Industrial output growth slowed to a 20-month low of 0.1 per cent
Both are important macro indicators and may influence investor sentiment
Since the inflation numbers are still below RBI’s target, hopes of another rate cut in June can make market log gains in the coming
Minutes of RBI's MPC meetingThe MPC cut the policy rate but maintained a 'neutral' stance in April monetary policy review
Minutes of the meeting to be released this week can show what transpired behind the closed door
The market will read it for possible clue on future interest rate trajectory
Key global macro printsUS industrial production, retail sales and manufacturing data for March and February trade balance data, along with
first quarter GDP numbers and March industrial production numbers for China; March inflation numbers for euro zone and Japan's consumer
price inflation data and trade balance data for March and industrial production for February are among important macro numbers that markets
across the globe will read to get a sense of the health of the global economy
Noise around election politicsThe market cannot ignore it
The second phase of voting is due on Thursday and experts say the market will endure bouts of volatility till the final results come out on
Health of the rupeeBreaking its three-day winning run, the rupee closed 25 paise lower at 69.17 to the US dollar on Friday as rising crude
oil prices had its impact on forex market
During the week, the domestic unit gained 6 paise
While the market will expect the rupee to be on a steady course, it may face challenges due to rising crude oil prices
A PTI report said forex dealers are worried after the Supreme Court on Friday restrained Arcelor Mittal from acquiring Essar Steel, which in
turn might impact dollar flows as Essar Steel acquisition was to be worth nearly $7 billion
Inflow of overseas portfolio moneyFlow of foreign portfolio investments will remain an important factor for the market
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net buyers in market, putting in Rs 897.45 crore on Friday, NSE data showed
In April so far, FPIs have pumped in Rs 11,742 crore, data available with NSDL showed
Tech charts signal consolidation aheadLast week, Nifty formed a Hammer-like pattern which, following an indecisive Doji in the previous
week, suggested a loss of momentum
So, some consolidation looks possible, analysts say
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, expects rangebound action going forward
He does not rule out a minor correction before the index sees a sharp breakout on the upside from the all-time high point of 11,761
Vaishali Parekh, senior technical analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher, says for the week Nifty will have support at 38,120 and 11,440 while it
may face resistance at 39,260 and 11,800 levels.
