INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Consumers typically buy everything from new cars to shoes for themselves and as gifts during celebrationsPoor demand from Indian consumers
could dampen the mood during festivals next month, especially for automobile makers and retailers that count on the season for a sales
boost, analysts predict.Consumers in the country typically buy everything from new cars to shoes for themselves and as gifts during
celebrations steeped in religion and tradition
Yet the slowest economic growth in six years, unemployment at a 45-year high and tepid private consumption may see sales fall short of
recent years, even after the government's $20 billion tax break to companies earlier this month."You can make the product 50 per cent
cheaper, but there has to be income to spend," said Nitin Gupta, an analyst at SBICAP Securities Ltd
"In the short-term, I don't see any kind of an income boost
Rather than giving cash to individuals, they have given it to companies."Car sales in August fell the most on record and Maruti Suzuki India
Friday reduced the price on its Baleno RS model by Rs 100,000 ($1,420) to pass on the benefit from the tax cut
Market researcher Nielsen has lowered its 2019 growth estimate for fast-moving goods to 9-10 per cent from 11-12 per cent, while a stock
gauge of consumer discretionary firms is set for its first annual back-to-back losses since at least 2005.Even so, the industry's fortunes
beyond the approaching festival season are poised to improve, according to BNP Paribas SA
Plentiful rainfall seen this monsoon season and cash handouts to farmers will help lift rural incomes, helping sales of staples recover in
the second half of the year that began April 1, the brokerage said in a recent report.Here's what other analysts say:SBICAP Securities'
GuptaThe festive season is likely to be dull
Consumption is hit and household income has to increase for there to be better demand for companies selling fast-moving consumer
goods.Corporate tax cuts are a long-term phenomena and won't help in the short term
It's uncertain how much companies could pass on the benefit in terms of lower prices.Recommends buying shares in Dabur India Ltd., holding
ITC Ltd., Colgate-Palmolive India Ltd., and Hindustan Unilever Ltd., and selling Nestle India Ltd.Harshit Kapadia, an analyst at Elara
Securities IndiaI'm not expecting a blockbuster festive season
It won't be muted either, but will be decent
Even last year demand was largely flat, that's why double-digit growth in demand on the lower end is possible.Distributors are preparing for
the Navratri and Diwali season, but nobody is stocking up heavily
They are following the normal trend of keeping 15-20 days of inventory, whereas in past years they would keep 30-35 days ahead of the
festival seasonRecommends buying Havells India Ltd
sharesRavi Swaminathan, an analyst at Spark Capital PteSales growth in refrigerators and washing machines has been moderate (mid to high
single digit).With early festive demand traction not very encouraging, dealers are hopeful for better traction over the next 2-3
months.Recommends adding Whirlpool of India Ltd., Havells and Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd
sharesBasudeb Banerjee, an analyst at Ambit Capital Pvt.The best case scenario for automobiles is for demand to remain flattish on a
year-on-year basis as last festival season was bad for demand
Things have gotten worse since then.Investors should avoid commercial vehicles and producers of lower-cost two wheelers, which face a bigger
inventory pileup.Recommends selling Hero MotoCorp Ltd., Ashok Leyland Ltd
and Tata Motors shares, buying Eicher Motors Ltd., Bajaj Auto Ltd
and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.Shirish Pardeshi, an analyst at Centrum Broking Ltd.Demand is there, it's only the size of the wallet that's
In difficult times, people don't stop buying the product
If someone was buying a large pack before, maybe they'll buy a small pack now.In the festive season people tend to forget the bad
times.Recommends buying shares in Dabur, Britannia, and Hindustan Unilever and Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd., on improving consumer sentiment,
helped by a good monsoon that should support demand from rural areas, selling shares in Colgate-PalmoliveGet Breaking news, live coverage,
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