INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
ET Intelligence Group: The stock of Bharat Forge had gained over 8% in the past three months on hopes of a recovery in its exports to the US
However, amid the slowing demand overseas as well as in the domestic market, India’s largest forging components supplier to automakers has
guided for weak earnings in the second half of the current fiscal
This is expected to prompt the analysts to downgrade earnings estimates, putting pressure on the stock.
The company’s negative outlook
surprised analysts since they were building a case that a healthy order backlog for the heavy trucks segment in North America to support
Bharat Forge’s earnings for FY20, and the impact of a contraction in order inflows for new trucks to reflect only in FY21
But, the recent inventory correction by the US truck makers show that the pain will be visible during the current fiscal.
Bharat Forge has
been facing headwinds in its forging component segment meant for the trucks in the domestic and international markets, which accounts for
two-thirds of the total standalone revenue
Revenue of the trucks export division dropped by 18% in the September quarter as truck makers reduced their inventory on the expectation of
recession in the US market next year
Bharat Forge has guided for a lower production volume of the Class 8 truck — a gauge of the North American heavy truck market — at
345,000 units in 2019 compared with 325,000 in the previous year
For the next calendar year, the company expects 20% and around 8% decline in the US and European markets respectively.
The risk of lower
Class 8 truck orders will increase if the US economy slows further
This will result in order cancellations, affecting the export volumes of Bharat Forge
The revenue for the export division is expected to grow marginally in the current fiscal and may decline by 20-25% for the next fiscal.
Back
home, the Indian truck industry has been facing a downturn with monthly volumes hitting the lowest in a decade
The company’s revenue in the domestic division fell by 67% in the September quarter
It does not expect any major lift in volumes during the coming quarters owing to advance purchases ahead of new emission norms effective
The revenue from the domestic truck segment is likely to decline by 35% for the current fiscal.
With a downturn imminent in two significant
business verticals, the company has shifted focus on cost reduction, improvement in productivity and cash flows
The operating margin before depreciation (EBITDA margin) fell by just over 60 basis points to 25.4% sequentially even though the volume drop
was higher than the previous quarter.
Given the slowing demand, analysts may downgrade Bharat Forge’s estimated operating profit while the
cut in earnings per share (EPS) will be less due to lower corporate tax.
Its stock underperformed the BSE Auto index by 10% in the past
The stock’s price-earnings (P/E) multiple is expected to shrink further
At Monday’s cosing price of ₹435.4, the stock was traded at 21 times FY21expected earnings compared with the five year average of 25.