INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Plenty of events and factors are likely to keep the market busy next week
They include a new listing, some crucial bills in Parliament, a couple of important macro data and global cues.
The government will release
November inflation print amid soaring vegetable and food prices, while factory output data for October will be released a little later in
the week, which is likely to be subdued, as core sector output has remained disappointing.
The winter session of Parliament will come to an
A number of important bills are slated to be tabled in the last week of the session.
Going by the buzz on Dalal Street, here are the key
factors that will guide the market through the week:-
Retail inflation dataThe government will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data
for November on December 12, Thursday
India's retail price inflation climbed 4.62 percent year-on-year (YoY) in October, 2019, the highest in over a year, from the previous
month’s 3.99 per cent and above market expectations of 4.25 per cent
The rise in inflation was the main reason behind RBI’s decision to maintain status quo on repo rate in the recently-concluded policy
review.
Oct factory outputMarket men will track industrial production outcome as the IIP data for October will be released on December 12
Industrial output in India dropped 4.3 per cent year-on-year in September of 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.4 per cent fall in August
Core sector output, which accounts for 40 per cent of the IIP data, fell 5 per cent year on year
Winter session of ParliamentDalal Street will keenly track a number bills that are going to be tabled in the ongoing winter session of
Parliament, which commenced on November 18 and is set to end on December 13
They include the Personal Data Protection Bill that has the potential to affect the Internet companies on how they process data on Indian
citizens.
Ujjivan SFB listingUjjivan Small Finance Bank is likely to finalise share allotment on Monday
The company may debut on BSE and NSE on Thursday, according to brokerages
The issue was subscribed 166 times during the book building process, and going by the recent trends, may see a bumper listing.
US-China
trade dealTraders will also track developments on trade deal between the US and China
On Friday, a US official said that a partial trade pact with China remains close at hand, days before another round of US tariffs is due to
“The deal is still close,” National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told CNBC
“It is probably a wee bit closer than when I first made that statement in November.” He described the talks underway with Beijing as
"intense," adding that they occur almost daily.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump lashed out at the World Bank on Friday, blaming the
international financial institution for lending money to China.
Global cues to watchOn the global front, investors will be eyeing a slew of
economic data from the US, starting from Consumer Inflation Expectations on December 9, followed by NFIB Business Optimism Index and Redbook
on December 10, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change on December 11, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic
Projections and Jobless Claims on December 12 and finally Retail Sales, Import Prices, Export Prices and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on
December 13.
Technical outlookOn Friday, Nifty50 formed a bearish candle on the daily chart as it broke below its immediate resistance in
the 11,950-60 zone with ease, suggesting that a short-term correction might have set in
Shrikant Chouhan, Senior Vice-President for Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities, suggests caution and reducing weak long positions
He said the market fell largely on the back of a sudden rally in the 10-year GSEC, which closed higher at 6.65 on Friday
This triggered weakness in financials and other rate sensitive sectors.
“Also, the breadth of the broader market has turned poor too
Advances vs Declines stood at 1:3, which means the market has made a top at 12160 and is heading lower to levels of 11,700/11,600 in the
Traders and short term investors need to be cautious and should try to reduce weak long positions at 11950 and 12000 levels,” he said.
