Q3 earnings: IT biggies likely to report modest revenue growth, healthy deal wins

INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: Domestic IT firms are likely to post up to 2 per cent sequential growth in December quarter revenue in constant currency (CC)
terms for the seasonally weakest period of the year
Growth in verticals like retail and BFSI may remain tepid, but the companies many report a healthy rise in deal wins. Management
commentaries for Calendar 2020 and fourth quarter of FY20 will be watched keenly, analysts said
Brokerage Kotak Securities expects IT biggies to log a constant currency revenue growth of 0.7-2 per cent sequentially and 2.3-15 per cent
on a year-on-year basis. Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities projects flat to 2 per cent sequential growth in revenues (CC terms) for top IT
firms, except for Tech Mahindra
For Tech Mahindra, this brokerage foresees a 6 per cent sequential growth in CC revenues against Kotak’s 2 per cent projection
Nirmal Bang said global macros turned weaker in December quarter, and commentaries from the IT firms are likely to be incrementally more
cautious this quarter. “We believe the market’s focus would be on total contract value (TCV) of large deals and management commentaries
about client behaviour going into FY21, especially around conversion of the already won TCV," it said. December quarter is usually a lean
period for the technology sector due to furloughs and lower working days. Kotak Securities said TCS’ revenue growth on a YoY basis is
likely to moderate to 6.8 per cent in CC terms due to a slowdown in BFS and retail segment and the high base of the previous year
Infosys is likely to deliver 9 per cent revenue growth YoY partly driven by acquisitions and other inorganic initiatives, it said. During
the quarter, the rupee depreciated against the dollar
But it may offer only a mild (up to 0.2-0.5 per cent) tailwind to IT firms’ margins. “We expect TCS’ margin to fall below the 24 per
cent level
Infosys’ margin is expected to improve sequentially, as some of the large deal transition costs recede
Tech Mahindra would see a strong pick-up in growth driven by the rampup of the AT-T deal
Most companies should witness mild cross-currency tailwinds for the quarter on a QoQ basis,” Nirmal Bang said.