INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
A huge crowd in Iraq's capital Baghdad is taking part in a funeral procession for the Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, who was
killed in a US airstrike on Thursday.Soleimani was the architect of Iran's Middle East operations and Iran vowed to take "severe revenge"
The gathering in Baghdad on Saturday marked the beginning of days of mourning for Soleimani
His body is to be returned to Iran for a funeral and burial in his home town
The crowds in Baghdad were also there to mourn the death of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi who commanded the Iranian-backed Kataib
Hezbollah group and effectively led the Popular Mobilisation units - an umbrella of militias in Iraq dominated by groups aligned with
Iran.vMourners started gathering in Baghdad from the early hours, ahead of the start of the procession, waving Iraqi and militia flags and
chanting "death to America"
The procession snaked though the streets, some carrying portraits of Soleimani and some of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei.Reports said the bodies of the Iranians would then be flown on Saturday evening to Iran, which has declared three days of mourning
His funeral is to be held on Tuesday in his hometown of Kerman in central Iran.Some Iraqis, conversely, celebrated in Baghdad's streets at
the news of Soleimani's death
He was accused of orchestrating violent crackdowns on peaceful pro-democracy protests there in recent months.The priority for Iran's leaders
now is to send a very strong message about how much Qasem Soleimani mattered.He mattered in terms of being the most important military
official for Iran, the most important intelligence official, one of the most important political personalities
They now want to see massive funerals, massive processions through the streets of major Iranian cities
The aim is to solidify Qasem Soleimani's status as a martyr
It is clear from all of the signs that he already had cult hero status among his forces
They want that symbolism to live on, to make him as powerful in death as he was in life.Fresh airstrikes in IraqIraqi state television said
on Friday there had been another air strike in the country, 24 hours after the killing of Soleimani
An Iraqi army source told the Reuters news agency that six people were killed in the new strike, which hit a convoy of Iraqi militia in the
early hours of Saturday morning local time.
A US military spokesman denied that the American-led coalition fighting in the region was
responsible."FACT: The Coalition @CJTFOIR did NOT conduct airstrikes near Camp Taji (north of Baghdad) in recent days," said Colonel Myles
Caggins III, in a post on Twitter.The United States said it had deployed an additional three-thousand troops to the Middle East to help
respond to any backlash frm the strike.Speaking at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, the US president, Donald Trump
said: "The United States military executed a flawless precision strike that killed the number one terrorist anywhere in the world, Qassem
Soleimani."Mr Trump said Soleimani was "plotting imminent and sinister attacks on American diplomats and military personnel but we caught
him in the act and terminated him".But Trump administration officials did not give any details about what planned attacks had prompted them
to move quickly to kill Soleimani
Both President Barack Obama and President George Bush rejected a strike on the general as too risky.The US state department issued a warning
in the wake of the strike, advising American citizens to leave Iraq immediately via any means possible.In a statement following Soleimani's
death, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: "His departure to God does not end his path or his mission, but a forceful revenge
awaits the criminals who have his blood and the blood of the other martyrs last night on their hands."Simmering US-Iranian hostilities had
escalating rapidly last week after the US conducted air strikes in Iraq and Syria against an Iran-backed Iraqi militia, which the blamed for
an earlier rocket attack that killed a US civilian contractor
Pro-Iranian militia attacked the US Embassy in Baghdad in response.In a letter to the UN Security Council, responding to the strike on
Soleimani, Iranian ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi said that Iran reserved the right to self-defence under international law
Analysts said Iran could deploy cyber-attacks against the US, or attempt to strike US military targets or interests in the Middle East.Iran
supports a variety of Shia militia groups in neighbouring Iraq
Soleimani had just arrived at Baghdad airport and was travelling in a convoy alongside officials from such militia when their cars were hit
by several US missiles.Al-Muhandis, the Iraqi militia leader who was also killed in the strike, commanded the Kataib Hezbollah group - also
backed by Iran.Iraq now finds itself in a difficult position as an ally both of Iran and of the US
Thousands of US troops remain in the country to assist in the broader struggle against the Islamic State (IS) group
But the Iraqi government insists that the US has acted beyond the terms of this agreement.Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi labelled the
missile strike as a "brazen violation of Iraq's sovereignty and a blatant attack on the nation's dignity"
Iraq's parliament announced that it would hold an emergency meeting on Sunday
The US State Department warned Americans in Iraq to leave "immediately".Who was Qasem Soleimani? The 62-year-old was widely seen as the
second most powerful figure in Iran, behind Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
The Quds Force, an elite unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported directly to the ayatollah, and Soleimani was hailed
as a heroic national figure
He was widely considered an architect of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's war against rebels in Syria, the rise of pro-Iranian
paramilitaries in Iraq, the fight against the Islamic State group, and many battles beyond.Charismatic and often elusive, the silver-haired
commander was revered by some, loathed by others, and a source of myths and social media memes
He had emerged in recent years from a lifetime in the shadows directing covert operations to achieve fame and popularity in Iran, becoming
the subject of documentaries, news reports and even pop songs.Under his 21-year leadership of the Quds Force, Iran bolstered Hezbollah and
other pro-Iranian militant groups in Lebanon; expanded its military presence in Iraq and Syria; and orchestrated Syria's offensive against
rebel groups in that country's long civil war.Does Trump have a strategy?US President Donald Trump's decision to authorise a drone strike
that killed Iran's most powerful military commander has seen tensions between the two nations escalate
What's the strategy here, and what might happen next? Mr Trump has long promised to take American troops out of the Middle East.But under
his presidency, US relations with Iran have become more tense as he has ramped up sanctions and pulled out of a nuclear deal he viewed as
Here's what US foreign policy experts believe may be behind the decision to kill Qasem Soleimani and what it means for US-Iran relations.PJ
Crowley is a former US Assistant Secretary of State and author of Red Line: American Foreign Policy in a Time of Fractured Politics and
Failing States.We had the attack by the Iranian-backed militia and the response against its compounds in Iraq and Syria.The Trump
administration was surprised by the magnitude of the attack on the embassy in Baghdad, viewed it as an escalation and believed that
Presented with a target of opportunity, the president authorised the strike.Donald Trump is not a grand strategist
He lives in the moment and acts by instinct
I would be surprised if he thought through the after-effects.He was presented with the opportunity to take out a "bad hombre" that Obama
That was probably all he needed to hear.Iran has promised to respond and has lots of proxies that will look for targets of opportunity
They understand enough about American politics to know that the key to Trump's re-election campaign is the US economy
If they can disrupt it, they will.In theory, the Trump endgame is forcing Iran back to the bargaining table for a "better deal" that takes
into account not just Iran's nuclear ambitions, but its missile program and regional behaviour as well
It's implausible to see how this moves us closer to negotiations
Secretary of State Pompeo is dreaming when he says we are going to be widely applauded across the region.
In Jerusalem and Riyadh yes, but
the rest of the region is holding its breath.
What about his promises to leave the Middle East?
The president has never resolved the
inherent contradiction within his Iran policy
He wants to exert maximum pressure while attempting to extract the United States from the region.
While the president has consistently
criticised Middle East wars with nothing to show for them, he has taken an action that at least in the short-term increases the risk that
the existing political and economic conflict between Iran and the United States will escalate into a shooting war.
'Sorry Iran', escalation
fears and other US reactionWhy the US had Soleimani in its sightsWhy kill Soleimani now and what happens next?'The stick and the
carrot'William Tobey is a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and the former
Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Non-proliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration.
Why now?
The timing is
probably reflective of the fact that the maximum pressure campaign has been surprisingly effective.
Tehran has chosen to escalate from the
economic dimension to the military dimension, first with strikes against oil tankers and facilities and later against contractors.
One
could see this as an attempt to close off that channel for escalation, to tell Tehran: "Look, that's not going to work for you."
Media
captionFeeling the squeeze: Iran sanctions explainedWhat's Trump's strategy?
He's pursuing a tricky policy - to apply so much pressure that
Iran feels that it has literally no choice but to return to the negotiating table and have a better deal, but not so much pressure that Iran
thinks that there's no chance that the US will actually either adhere to a deal or even strike a deal that would be tolerable to them.
In
some ways, you see the stick - with the attack on the Soleimani convoy - but a carrot by the president saying: "Look I don't want to have
war with Iran."
He's trying to hold open the possibility that he doesn't see unlimited conflict as a constructive path.
What next?
Iran
has seen staggering inflation rates and devaluation of their currency
Having fought a losing battle on the economic sanctions front, they decided to open a new front - Military strikes.
I have a belief that
nation states that feel like they're either aggrieved or attacked become more risk-tolerant.
Image copyrightAFPImage captionProtests have
also taken place outside Iran - here in PakistanWe've certainly seen a high risk-tolerance by the government in TehranI suspect their
willingness to take further risks will increase.
So the question is, which will end first - the maximum pressure campaign or Tehran's
ability to resist it?
Iran's response options for Soleimani's deathIran's network of influence in Mid-East 'growing''Trump was painted into
a corner'Luke Coffey is the Director of the Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank based in
Washington DC, a US Army veteran and a former special adviser at the UK Ministry of Defence.
Why now?
I think every person has a
limit.
When you look at everything that Iran has been doing over the past year I think it's clear that Iran was trying to provoke some sort
of response from the US.
Media captionThousands took to the streets of Kerman to mourn Gen Soleimani, a popular figure in IranTrump,
because he's not very military interventionist, was trying to avoid this situation
I suspect that he's been presented this option in the past and has rejected it, and then this week he decided enough is enough.
He's
continued to say he wants to have a negotiated settlement with Iran with no conditions for talks.
Trump reached a point where he had to
push back.
Your questions: Will Soleimani killing spark war?A brief history of US-Iran relationsWhat's Trump's strategy?
The maximum
pressure campaign is the strategy - the administration has been very consistent on this.
Trump's shown he's trying to get the Iranians back
to the negotiating table and I think he's trying to do so with the least amount of military kinetic action.
I think Trump does see himself
as this great negotiator and wanted to be the one to cut the deal, but was painted into this corner because Iran kept ratcheting their side
of the pressure.
Image copyrightREUTERSImage captionProtests are taking place in Iran - what will the wider repercussions be?You don't just
wake up one morning and decide to kill Qasem Soleimani
There had to have been interagency planning in terms of tracking his whereabouts, finding windows of opportunity.
We should not forget that
Qasem Soleimani [was] a combatant inside a combat zone
No doubt that if the Iranians had the opportunity to take out someone similar in the US, they'd do so.
This is part of the drumbeat of
conflict that we're stuck with in the Middle East
I don't think this is going to spiral over to become World War Three.
What next?
Iran's definitely not going to come to the table
now.
That wasn't a reason not to do the strike - frankly, Soleimani had it coming to him and he got it.
He has the blood of American
soldiers on his hands and has terrorised huge chunks of the Middle East for more than a decade
Just because Trump wanted to have talks with Iran doesn't mean he shouldn't have taken out Soleimani.Media captionHundreds of US troops
arrive in Kuwait - thousands more could be deployed to the regionI don't think he did it with politics in mind, I think he wanted to avoid
this situation or he would've done it earlier
But politically speaking for him this makes him look like a strong leader among his supporters.What about his promises to leave the Middle
East?Trump barely likes US troops in Germany, so the idea that he's going to put US troops in Iran in an election year is, I think,
inconceivable.But he has to also show the US is only going to be pushed around so much.Why the US had him in its sights3 January 2020Share
this with Facebook Share this with Messenger Share this with Twitter Share this with Email ShareImage copyrightREUTERSImage captionSoleimani
- seen here in Iraq in 2015 - directed militia in Iraq who attacked US troops and later fought the Islamic State groupNext to Iran's Supreme
Leader, Qasem Soleimani was arguably the most powerful figure in the Islamic republic.
As head of its military abroad known as the Quds
Force, Soleimani was the mastermind behind the country's activities across in the Middle East, and its real foreign minister when it came to
matters of war and peace.
He was widely considered an architect of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's war against rebels in Syria, the rise
of pro-Iranian paramilitaries in Iraq, the fight against the Islamic State group, and many battles beyond.
Charismatic and often elusive,
the silver-haired commander was revered by some, loathed by others, and a source of myths and social media memes.
Why kill Soleimani now
and what happens next?US-Iran relations: A brief historyProfile: Iran's Revolutionary GuardsHe had emerged in recent years from a lifetime
in the shadows directing covert operations to achieve fame and popularity in Iran, becoming the subject of documentaries, news reports and
even pop songs.
As far back as 2013, former CIA officer John Maguire told The New Yorker that Soleimani was "the single most powerful
operative in the Middle East".
When his end came, it was violent and sudden
On 3 January the Pentagon announced that it had carried out a successful operation to kill him, at the direction of US President Donald
Trump.
Image copyrightEPAImage captionSoleimani (R) was close to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah KhameneiThe assassination followed a sharp
escalation between the US, Iran and Iran-backed groups in Iraq following the death of a US military contractor in a missile attack on a US
base in Iraq - for which the US held Iran responsible.
The US responded with an air strike on the Iran-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah
Militia supporters then attacked the US embassy in Baghdad.
Tensions between the US and Iran had been rising since the US pulled out of a
nuclear deal between Iran and world powers to curb Iran's nuclear programme and prevent it from developing nuclear weapons
The US has also reimposed sanctions on Iran, sending its economy into freefall.
Rise of militiasSoleimani is believed to have come from a
poor background and to have had very little formal education
But he had risen through the Revolutionary Guards - Iran's elite and most powerful force - and was reportedly close to Iran's Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khomeini.
After becoming commander of the Quds Force in 1998, Soleimani attempted to extend Iran's influence in the Middle
East by carrying out covert operations, providing arms to allies and developing networks of militias loyal to Iran.
Over the course of his
career he is believed to have aided Shia Muslim and Kurdish groups in Iraq fighting against former dictator Saddam Hussein as well as other
groups in the region including the Shia militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamist organisation Hamas in the Palestinian
territories.
After the US invaded Iraq in 2003 he began directing militant groups to carry out attacks against US troops and bases, killing
hundreds.
He is also widely credited with finding a strategy for Bashar al-Assad to respond to the armed uprising against him that began in
Iranian assistance along with Russian air support helped turn the tide against rebel forces and in the Syrian government's favour, allowing
it to recapture key cities and towns.
Soleimani himself was sometimes pictured at funerals of Iranians killed in Syria and Iraq, where Iran
had deployed thousands of combatants and military advisers.
He also travelled frequently across the region, regularly shuttling between
Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, where Iranian influence has steadily grown
When he was killed he was travelling in a two-car convoy away from Baghdad airport with others including Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi
al-Muhandis, who was also killed.
Soleimani was killed in an air strike near Baghdad's airportIn April 2019, US Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo designated Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force as foreign terrorist organisations.
The Trump administration has said the Quds
Force provided funding, training, weapons and equipment to US-designated terrorist groups in the Middle East - including Hezbollah movement
and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group based in Gaza.
In a statement, the Pentagon said Soleimani had been "actively developing plans to
attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region".
"General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible
for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more," it added
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