INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Antarctica faces a growing threat from fishing and mining as its ice melts and the world's population swells, an expert has warned.Klaus
Dodds, professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University of London, said climate change could erode Antarctica's special status as the
last great wilderness, leading to increasing pressure to exploit its resources."If you're not careful, the ice is slippery," he said in an
interview with Sky News to mark the 200th anniversary of the discovery of the continent."If Antarctica continues to change thanks to things
like climate change, will that also lead to a shift in the way that we think of Antarctica? Does Antarctica stop being so exceptional?"He
said seals and whales have been heavily exploited in the past, but increasingly fish and, in future, minerals, such as zinc, iron and
uranium, could be targets.Mining is currently banned under the Antarctic Treaty and fishing is regulated.But the 60-year-old agreement,
widely seen as a fudge to smooth over competing territorial claims, is under pressure as emerging nations, particularly China, seek to
establish a presence on the continent."Whatever we do in the Antarctic, however well governed it is or environmentally protected, climate
change is going to place pressures on the Antarctic," said Professor Dodds."It means that countries like China are going to become
increasingly dominant in demanding a voice about how Antarctica is governed
After all, cities like Shanghai will bear the brunt of sea level rise."'It gets everywhere': Plastic in AntarcticaChina has four research
stations on the continent and is building a fifth.The Antarctic Treaty was signed at the height of the Cold War
It put aside territorial claims made by the UK, France, Norway, Argentina, Chile, Australia and New Zealand, and designated the continent as
a place of "peace and science".It survives on consensus
There are 54 nations signed up, including all the superpowers.But there are doubts whether it could hold if one nation broke away and
ignored the agreement.The treaty has led to a boom in science on Antarctica, with 30 countries establishing a total of 82 research bases
dotted around the continent.But there are tensions over the military presence at some bases and lack of high-quality science at others.Chile
and Argentina, which have both made territorial claims that overlap with the UK's, have sent pregnant women to their bases to give birth.The
story of Antarctica"Science has always been a proxy for geopolitics," said Professor Dodds."Countries went to great lengths to put their
stations all over Antarctica and to raise national flags and to show off their activities in a really direct attempt to say, 'we're here,
we're busy, this is ours.'""People assumed in the 1950s that Antarctica would be isolated from the rest of the world, that it would be a
sort of natural laboratory for science and good governance."Actually, as we go into the 2020s we're going to see that Antarctica is ever
more exposed to these broader geopolitical, economic and cultural currents that make it hard to continue with the old business model."Jane
Rumble, head of the polar regions department at the UK Foreign Office, said science is absolutely critical for Antarctica and the
treaty."We're not complacent or naive that the treaty is the best thing ever," she told Sky News.This is how you survive in Antarctica "But
the evidence shows that most states feel that they're better off cooperating within the treaty to understand Antarctica and have a say in
how it's governed than trying to go alone."The first recorded sighting of Antarctica was on 27 Jan 1820 by Russian naval officer Fabian
Gottlieb von Bellingshausen
He spotted an ice shelf on the Princess Martha coast.Three days later a British expedition led by Edward Bransfield sighted land on the
Antarctic Peninsula.Ms Rumble said: "Two hundred years ago we didn't know there was a continent at the bottom of the ocean."Now we know it
drives our oceans, it drives our atmosphere, it gives us all weather
It's going to have an impact on sea level."So really understanding Antarctica is absolutely critical."
