INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Venezuela’s inflation rate has hit a new high, according to university research, with consumer prices in the crisis-ridden country rising
by more than 40,000 per cent annually for the first time on record.
Steve H
Hanke, an applied economics professor at Johns Hopkins University, told Business Insider on Friday that annual inflation in the country has
risen as high as 41,838 per cent
Hanke, who calculated the inflation figure, has tracked prices in the country for more than two decades.
Venezuela’s government has
largely stopped reporting economic data, including internal measures of inflation
The Central Bank of Venezuela, which did not immediately respond to request for comment, has not independently released inflation figures in
at least a year.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has passed blame for the roiled economy onto others, including opposition activists and
At a campaign rally in May, he blamed hyperinflation on “criminal mafias.”
But economists point out that Maduro runs the unorthodox
policies they say have pushed the country into economic crisis
The socialist leader has repeatedly refused international aid to Venezuela.
“It’s internal,” Hanke said
“Government spending continues to accelerate and the sources of revenue start drying up.”
The government has defaulted on a majority of
their outstanding bonds, which economists estimate add up to about $US60 billion
Foreign exchange reserves have fallen by about $US2.5 billion in the last three months, according to analysis by Capital Economics.
As
state-run oil industry PDVSA falls apart, economists say a rise in global oil prices is adding to the pain
Brent crude oil is up more than 64 per cent this year
And as President Donald Trump cracks down on Iran via zero-tolerance oil sanctions, the international benchmark has rallied more than 8 per
cent this week.
Production at PDVSA – which accounts for 95 per cent of export earnings in the country and a quarter of gross domestic
product – was cut in half from January 2016 to January 2018, according to the US Energy Information Administration
And as the crisis deepens, operations are continuing to wane.
Those conditions, Hanke said, have all but killed investor sentiment
“There’s an expectation part of it, too,” Hanke said
“Everyone who has a bolivar wants to get rid of it like a hot potato because they expect it’s not going to be worth anything
tomorrow.”
The International Monetary Fund estimated in January that Venezuela’s inflation rate could rise as high as 13,000 per cent
Hanke was unsurprised by the discrepancy, saying no one can “accurately forecast the course or the duration of a hyperinflation.”
But
economists and activists say hyperinflation’s presence now is clear
A recent university study found that about 90 per cent of civilians were living in poverty last year and most of those surveyed had lost an
average of 25 pounds in body weight.
“The hyperinflation is devastating the economy,” said Andres Abadia, a senior economist at Pantheon
He expects the economy to contract in 2018, for a fifth consecutive year, and sees no turnaround in the near-term.
Abadia said Venezuela is
a “disaster area” and that as long as Maduro is in power, the economy will “continue to collapse.” But Maduro reaffirmed a tight
grip on power last month, as he easily won another six-year term in what was widely condemned as a fraudulent election.
