INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
TEHRAN – A Turkish political pundit argues that Russia will take measures against NATO expansion once Sweden and Finland fully join the
“The most fundamental impact for Russia will be the necessity of taking measures against the expanding and increasing NATO threat and
the economic and social costs it will create,” Tahsin Yamak comments.Talking to the Tehran Times, Yamak says, “These memberships will of
course have various effects for Russia, Sweden, Finland and Turkey.” The Turkish analyst also questions the effectiveness of the Russian
energy embargo against Sweden and Finland, saying Sweden and Finland are two European countries that are less dependent on natural gas and
oil due to their energy diversity.Following is the text of the interview:Q: Turkey agreed to drop opposition to Sweden and Finland joining
How do you see such a move?A: Turkey, which has increasing importance in the global system due to its geopolitical position, has a leader
who likes to push the limits in international politics and does not hesitate to take risks
The membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO was seen as an important area for Turkey to test its influence in the international system
Turkey also wanted to measure the limits of its sphere of influence in the global system by making the issue a crisis agenda among NATO
Surely, there is also a pragmatist side of the issue, aimed at achieving concrete gains on issues such as the fight against terrorism and
the arms embargo. “It will not be a surprise development that the Swedish island of Gotland, which is an important strategic point for
the control of the Baltic Sea, turn into a crisis and struggle area.” We know that one of the most important features of the states
(superpowers) with a high influence in the global system is their ability to create a crisis and their ability to end it in their favor
In this matter, Turkey has tested the limits of this capability
Ankara has made its first wish come true by making the membership of the two countries controversial by arguing that they support terrorism
and turning the issue into a crisis agenda at NATO.Turkey's claim that Finland and Sweden support terrorist organizations was not subject to
criticism from NATO members
In fact, almost all of the dominant forces of the organization, especially the NATO Secretary-General, shared their concerns about the
Ensuring the superiority of discourse on the subject can also be considered a success for Turkey.The tangible gain/benefit Ankara gained
from all these events was the memorandum dated 28.06.2022 signed by Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka
Haavisto, and Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde
The memorandum contains ten articles that will largely alleviate Turkey's concerns about terrorism and includes binding commitments for
Sweden and Finland.Although there is a signed agreement, it is clear that time is needed to see the outputs of the assurances/commitments
that Turkey received in return for supporting Finland-Sweden's entry into NATO
However, President Erdogan stated that they will act according to the steps to be taken by Sweden and Finland, and stated that the agreement
will not be submitted to the Assembly for approval if the necessary arrangements are not made and the commitments are not made
In other words, Erdogan stated that if the commitments are not fulfilled, the agreement will not be binding on them.If we evaluate the
issues we have discussed from the beginning together, it would not be wrong to say that Turkey's geopolitical weight in the global economic
system has increased since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine.Q: What will be the implications of Ankara's decision to accept Sweden
and Finland as new NATO members for Russia?A: I would like to give an answer to this question based on the statements made by the leaders of
Commenting on this issue, Putin stated that Russia does not have problems with Sweden and Finland, "We have neither a land problem nor
There is nothing to worry us about Finland and Sweden's NATO membership." On the other hand, Putin warned that it is dangerous for the two
countries to join NATO, adding, "In the past, there was no threat to them
Now, if troops and infrastructure are deployed there, we will have to respond and create a similar threat to their lands
something and they need to understand it clearly." Putin emphasized.“Turkey's geopolitical weight in the global economic system has
increased since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine.”Also, President Erdogan said, "We have bilateral relations with Russia, but we
also have bilateral relations with Ukraine
Therefore, we want to conduct politics through balance policies, not through policies of fighting
"Pointing out that more than 40 percent of Turkey's natural gas is supplied from Russia and that the nuclear power plant in Akkuyu was built
with Russia, President Erdogan underlined that these are of great importance and cannot be put aside
Erdogan added, "Therefore, we will follow the process and when we consider that politics is shaped on the basis of 'win-win' in this
process, there will be no issue."We see that Putin did not use an accusatory expression toward Turkey regarding the NATO membership of the
two countries and preferred to look at the event from the perspective of his country's security concerns
Therewithal, we see that President Erdogan continues his balance policy at the level of discourse, emphasizing the importance of Russia to
If we consider only the statements of the two leaders, it is difficult to expect a major breakdown in the relations between the two
countries due to the said decision.Whereas these memberships will of course have various effects on Russia, Sweden, Finland, and Turkey
The most fundamental impact for Russia will be the necessity of taking measures against the expanding and increasing NATO threat and the
economic and social costs it will create
I do not expect Russia's energy embargo to be effective, as Sweden and Finland are two of the European countries least dependent on natural
gas and oil due to their energy diversity
Herein, it will not be a surprise development that the Swedish island of Gotland, which is an important strategic point for the control of
the Baltic Sea, turns into a crisis and struggle area.Q: How do you see Turkey-Europe ties? Is Ankara still trying to be a member of the
EU?A: It’s known that the relations between Turkey and the European Union started with the partnership application made to the European
Economic Community on July 31, 1959
EU-Turkey relations, which have always been of strategic importance, can become a popular agenda item or fall out of favor within the
framework of cyclical developments and/or governments' approaches to membership
After the AK Party came to power in 2002, EU membership was considered a strategic agenda
In fact, as a result of the moves taken under the leadership of the AK party for the purpose of EU membership, Turkey started full
membership negotiations on October 3, 2005
However, after this date, we see that relations have eroded to a great extent due to both the cyclical developments and the constitutional
At this point, we can say that the EU membership issue is a discredited agenda item, especially for the government.In this respect, EU
membership has become a tool for a stronger, prosperous, respectable and democratic Turkey rather than a final goal for it
However, if we consider the latest data, we know that Turkey's most important export and import (foreign trade) partner is the European
Furthermore, Turkey is a “key country” in terms of Europe's security, defense, economy, energy and border security and migration
These issues cause both sides to have an important motivation on issues such as working in harmony, strategic cooperation, constructive
competition and winning together
At the same time, recognizing the importance of Turkey in the conditions of the Ukraine crisis, the EU had to turn a blind eye to the past
problems with Ankara on many issues, from the entry of Turkish troops into northern Syria to the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile
defense system. Turkey-EU relations continue in a controlled and pragmatic manner due to the intense mutual economic dependency and forced
cooperation due to migration
And as such, I consider EU-Turkey relations as a geostrategic economic cooperation model
However, in the midst of the conflict between the West and the East, Turkey, which is trying to be a self-sufficient and independent power
center, will always continue to establish long-term strategic relations with the EU based on a win-win game.Q: What is the position of
Turkey in the Ukraine war
Apparently, Turkish drones are used by Ukraine against Russia.A: A type of Turkish drone -Bayraktar TB2- that the Ukrainian military has
increasingly deployed against Russian forces in the Ukraine war, had destroyed a lot of tanks and surface-to-air missile systems and blew up
Russian fuel convoys and supply trucks
This situation gives the Russian side reason to fear their enemies and provides a vital boost to Ukraine's people's morale
On the other hand, images from Ukraine have become very useful for the PR and psychological warfare of Turkish drones.Previously, in the
conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, Turkish drones were also decisive in the victory of the Azeris over a Russian ally, Armenia
At this juncture, Turkey's growing drone industry facilitates the struggle of both itself and its allies and gives Turkey a geopolitical
These all developments, which are in line with its military interests and help maintain the balance of power in the Black Sea region, are
positive/critical for Turkey.Developments since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, with its key role in the Black Sea region and its
attempts to maintain relations with both Moscow and Kyiv, are causing Turkey to increase its geopolitical weight in the region
We can easily say that the drones that led to this situation will continue to be widely seen and used as a branch of Turkish foreign
policy.Q: Isn't that a contradiction that an Islamic country like Turkey serve a Western alliance like NATO that can harm Islamic nations?A:
First of all, Turkey became a member of NATO in order to protect the integrity and independence of the country
Nevertheless, in addition to security concerns, Turkey's modernization and westernization thought also had a significant impact on its
These issues may be the subject of criticism because it is possible to come across many opinions against NATO membership in the Turkish
public opinion.Turkey is a democratic and secular country with a predominantly Muslim population but without a constitution that references
Islamic principles, it has been a NATO member for 70 years
In this sense, it should be stated that the definition of an Islamic country will be far from expressing all the past experiences and
political dynamics of the country
For this reason, explaining Turkey's foreign policy preferences with only an Islamic reference will cause us to make an incomplete
assessment.On the other side, it would be unfair for Turkey to be expressed in a position in NATO that serves the West
Because Turkey is one of the countries that contribute most to global peace and integration among NATO allies
And under the NATO alliance, it had the opportunity to help many Islamic countries and/or Muslim minorities.Turkey has been a part of many
active peacekeeping missions under the leadership of NATO, such as the Bosnia, Kosovo, (Persian) Gulf/Iraq and Afghanistan Wars, and the
And, he was in command of many forces within NATO
It also hosts the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, which it launched in 2004 to expand NATO's borders and cooperate with more Muslim states
under the name of the Mediterranean Dialogue.I would like to express that, of course, it is a fact that there are country leaders who have
an opposite attitude towards Islamic values in NATO
However, it would not be correct to code NATO and/or the West as totally anti-Islamic -and bad - based on the presence of these people alone
In addition, it is clear that the Eastern Bloc, which is against the Western Bloc, is not composed of states with high Islamic sensitivities
In the midst of the war between the West and the East, Turkey, trying to become a self-sufficient and independent power center, found it
appropriate to be close to the Western alliance and to become a NATO member, within the conditions of the period.With NATO membership, it
was aimed for Turkey to be included in the Western Bloc and thus to get rid of loneliness in the face of the Soviets and continue the
If we take a historical perspective, being a NATO member made Turkey feel safe and Turkey's NATO presence has often led to beneficial
results for other Muslim countries
As a final word, I would like to indicate that NATO member Turkey has an important position for regional and world peace.
