INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
KATHMANDU, JUNE 23The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development has said despite projections of an
average/below-average monsoon for 2023, the risk of devastating floods remains alarmingly high in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.
Normal to below normal rainfall predicted over most parts of South Asia this monsoon
Mountain Clean-up Campaign 2023 collects over 35 tons of waste from Mt Everest, other peaks
The recent incidents in Nepal and north-eastern India have demonstrated the
Heavy rainfall triggered deadly flooding, claiming lives and displacing the communities
Climate change has intensified rainfall patterns, increasing the likelihood of severe floods.ICIMOD has urged immediate action to improve
forecasting and early warning systems, especially by installing community-based flood alerts in major flood-prone areas.
The 2023 monsoon is projected to be average and even below average
However, for the disaster events, this does not translate to a reduced risk of floods
A single heavy spell of rain can trigger disastrous consequences."We saw two such incidents just over the weekend in eastern Nepal's Koshi
Province where an overnight rainfall triggered flooding and landslides leading to five deaths and 28 missing people, and a flash flood in
Sikkim in north-eastern India washed away bridges and major highways displacing local communities and thousands of tourists," said the
ICIMOD.According to the ICIMOD, June and September are the crucial months for the HKH region, with the monsoon rains accounting for 80 per
cent of the region's annual precipitation
The increasing unpredictability of the season, however, is causing chains of disastrous events, leaving the countries in the region
struggling to adapt and respond."We have had several recent incidents where a single event has triggered disastrous impacts - the 2022
Pakistan floods which led to 1,730 deaths and economic losses tallying over USD 15 billion being the most recent
Climate change has led to alarming changes in rainfall patterns, intensifying the frequency and magnitude of precipitation
As a result, heavy rainfall within short durations have become more common in the HKH region, posing severe flood risks
The monsoon projection for 2023 is strikingly similar to that for 2014, wherein experts projected an average to below-average monsoon across
The year proved to be a disastrous one for Nepal, wherein heavy rainfall from August 14 to 16 caused massive flooding and landslides in 18
districts, leading to 53 deaths, countless displacements and economic losses of USD 140 million
All of us would want 2023 to be strikingly different from 2014 in terms of preparedness," stated the ICIMOD."We know that early warning and
information are key to reducing the risks
While short-term local events, particularly flash floods, are challenging prediction - community-based flood early warning systems provide a
couple of hours' lead time and the Flash Flood Prediction Tool provides 54 hours' lead time
Our work complements the work of meteorology and hydrology agencies in the HKH regional countries, who compile and share critical impending
disaster warnings as text messages to the local leaders in the vulnerable communities
While information is crucial, it is imperative for the communities to thoroughly assess their environment and take proactive measures
This includes identifying safer zones, ensuring access to emergency food supplies and maintaining constant communication with the local
leaders."ICIMOD has partnered with the national and local entities to improve forecast and early warning systems in the region
Community-based flood early warning systems give the communities a lead time of a couple of hours to make critical life-saving
decisions."With our support, the partners have installed three stations in Afghanistan, seven in India, 11 in Nepal and five in Pakistan
Several other development actors are also involved in installing community-based flood early warning systems in the region
It is vital that more such early warning systems be installed in major flood-prone tributaries
For maximum impact, scaling of these efforts is necessary
The region needs to make significant national-level investments in forecasting and early warning systems
This is a pivotal moment to address the impacts caused by past monsoons and work towards a safer future
The impact of monsoons is increasingly devastating each year and the countries in the region continue to grapple with the challenges," said
The World Bank projects that the GDP per capita change due to climate change will be higher than the global average of seven per cent for
South Asian countries.A version of this article appears in the print on June 24, 2023, of The Himalayan Times.
This article first appeared/also appeared in https://thehimalayantimes.com
