INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Frankfurt: The European Central Bank kept policy unchanged as expected on Thursday, staying on track to end bond purchases this year and
raise interest rates next autumn, even as protectionist moves around the globe drag on growth.
Even the Bank of England kept interest rates
on hold on Thursday and highlighted greater financial market concerns about Brexit, a month after raising borrowing costs for only the
second time in more than a decade.
The BoE said its nine rate-setters voted unanimously to hold rates at 0.75 per cent, in line with
economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, and said there had been limited domestic developments since its August 2 meeting, other than on
Brexit.
With inflation rebounding and growth levelling off at a relatively healthy pace, the ECB has been gently removing stimulus for
months in the belief that a range of risks from protectionism to emerging market turbulence and Brexit will not be enough to derail a growth
run now into its sixth year.
Making only a nuanced tweak to its policy stance, the ECB said it would halve its monthly bond purchases to 15
billion euros from October, firming up its previous language, which said only that such a move was anticipated.
But it maintained its stance
that bond buys are expected to end by the close of the year and that interest rates will stay unchanged at least through next summer
Some analysts say the unusually long horizon for that policy guidance will leave the bank on autopilot for months.
ECB President Mario
Draghi announced at his news conference small cuts to the Bank's growth forecasts for this year and next, citing weaker foreign demand, and
noted external risks such as rising protectionism and financial market volatility.
But he added: "The risks surrounding the euro area growth
outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced."
For markets, the policy meeting proved largely uneventful, with the euro hovering around
$1.1620.
"When does a central banker know that he (or she) has done an immaculate job When quantitative easing is brought to an end and
financial markets could hardly care less," commented Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany.
The Bank now expects growth of 2.0 per
cent this year and 1.8 per cent next, slightly lower than its previous forecast of 2.1 per cent and 1.9 per cent.
The Bank maintained its
forecast of annual inflation at 1.7 percent through to 2020, with Draghi insisting that was consistent with the bank's target of near 2
percent.
The ECB has kept rates in negative territory for years and bought more than 2.5 trillion euros of debt, depressing borrowing costs
and driving up growth following a double-dip recession that nearly tore the 19-member currency bloc apart.
While the scheme has produced
results, inflation is rising more slowly than once hoped and much of the ECB's firepower is exhausted, leaving it with few tools to fight
the next downturn.
With Thursday's decision, the ECB's deposit rate, currently its primary interest rate tool, will remain at -0.40 per cent
while the main refinancing rate, which determines the cost of credit in the economy, will remain at zero.
