F O: Vix falling, but Nifty likely to remain rangebound below 10,650

INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
By Chandan TapariaThe Nifty50 opened in the negative on Thursday and continued to show weakness for the third consecutive session in a row,
falling towards the 10,500 mark
It has been making lower highs and lower lows for three consecutive sessions and has corrected by around 250 points from its recent swing
high of 10,774. The 50-pack has been trading below its 50-DEMA and the crucial juncture at 10,650, which is also a trendline connecting the
recent swing lows of 10,020, 10,105, 10,440 and 10,650 levels
As long as the index remains below 10,650, it is likely to remain in a rangebound mode with limited upside, while on the downside, the next
major support exists at 10,450 level. On the options front, maximum Put open interest was at 10,000 followed by 10,500, while maximum Call
OI was at 10,700 followed by 11,000 level
There was Call writing at 10,600 followed by 10,700 whereas Put unwinding was seen at all immediate strike prices. India VIX fell 2.04 per
cent to 19.16 level
Volatility has to cool down below 17-16 levels to get the next leg of smooth upside rally; else volatile up and down swings could continue
in the market. Bank Nifty failed to cross previous day’s high and corrected towards 25,950 level after its initial rangebound move in the
market
It formed a bearish candle on the daily chart and a Bearish Belt Hold candle on the weekly scale
The index broke its immediate support at 26,100 and remained under pressure in line with the broader market
Now, it has next support in the 25,800-25,750 zone, while on the upside hurdles are seen in the 26,250-26,333 zone. Nifty futures closed in
the negative at 10,518 with a loss of 0.98 per cent
Long buildup was seen in Dalmia Bharat, NHPC, Capital First and IDFC Bank while shorts were seen in Hindalco, Amar Raja Battery, ACC and
Bata India. (Chandan Taparia is Technical Derivative Analyst at MOFSL
Investors are advised to consult financial advisers before taking an investment call based on these observations.)