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Even as the US central bank continues on its rate-hike path, the risk of capital flight from developing nation assets has diminished, money managers from Bank of America Merrill Lynch to JPMorgan Chase say.
That view is backed by history, which shows emerging markets remain resilient to Fed tightening as long as it’s orderly and well-communicated.
Riskier assets including emerging markets remain vulnerable to global fund outflows during times of Fed tightening as investors seek safer instruments such as US Treasuries.
That was the reason Ben Bernanke’s 2013 comments on withdrawal of Fed stimulus sparked panic selling that came to be known as the “taper tantrum.”
Yet, investors who stuck to that view lost out on emerging market rallies repeatedly — like in 2006 and 2016, when developing nation assets advanced in the wake of rising US interest rates.
History suggests that a robust US economy is more important to emerging market fortunes than fluctuations in fund allocations.
That relationship was evident on November 2 when the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which was rallying on trade optimism, maintained its gains even as the official jobs data showed US employers hired more than forecast in October.
A strong economy should support Fed tightening, a threat to riskier assets, but last week’s news was taken as a comforting factor amid a global growth slowdown.
Stock Market
Gradual Fed path may help the EM rally, not hinder it
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